Week 17 playoff scenarios – For Texans it’s simple.

TexansAs you saw from me on twitter, there remains one set of results, only one, that will have the Texans (8-7) season extend into the playoffs. They must win their game against Jacksonville (3-12) at NRG Stadium. Baltimore (9-6)  must lose their game at home against Cleveland (7-8) and San Diego (9-6) must lose their game on the road in Kansas City (8-7).

Those results would leave Houston, Baltimore, Kansas City and San Diego all at 9-7. Houston would win the tiebreaker based on their 8-4 conference record. Both Buffalo and Miami could join the 9-7 tiebreak party, but there are already no scenarios for them to win tiebreakers, they have both been eliminated.

The Texans open as a 9.5 favorite. The Ravens are an 8.5 point favorite, while the Chargers are a 2.5 point underdog.

Here are all the scenarios for week 17, with contingencies based on the Monday night football result between Denver and Cincinnati.

AFC
CLINCHED:
New England – AFC East and a first-round bye
Denver – AFC West
Indianapolis – AFC South
Pittsburgh – playoff berth

– NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (vs. Buffalo)
IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI
New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:
1) NE win OR
2) NE tie + DEN loss or tie OR
3) DEN loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER
New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs

– DENVER BRONCOS (at Cincinnati; vs. Oakland)
IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI
Denver clinches a first-round bye
Denver clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:
1) DEN win + NE loss or tie OR
2) DEN tie + NE loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER
Denver clinches a first-round bye with:1) DEN win or tie OR
2) CIN loss OR
3) CIN tie + IND win

– CINCINNATI BENGALS (vs. Denver; at Pittsburgh)
IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI
Cincinnati clinches AFC North with:
1) CIN win
Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot with:
1) CIN tie OR
2) BAL loss or tie OR
3) SD loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER
Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot
Cincinnati clinches AFC North with:
1) CIN win or tie
Cincinnati clinches a first-round bye with:
1) CIN win + DEN loss or tie OR
2) CIN tie + DEN loss + IND loss or tie

– PITTSBURGH STEELERS (vs. Cincinnati)
IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
1) PIT win or tie

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
1) PIT win

– SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (at Kansas City)
IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATISan Diego clinches a playoff spot with:
1) SD win OR
2) SD tie + CIN loss OR
3) SD tie + BAL loss or tie

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER
San Diego clinches a playoff spot with:
1) SD win OR
2) SD tie + BAL loss or tie

– BALTIMORE RAVENS (vs. Cleveland)
IF DENVER DEFEATS CINCINNATI
Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:
1) BAL win + CIN loss OR
2) BAL win + SD loss or tie OR
3) BAL tie + SD loss

IF CINCINNATI DEFEATS DENVER
Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:
1) BAL win + SD loss or tie OR
2) BAL tie + SD loss

– KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (vs. San Diego)
Kansas City clinches a playoff spot with:
1) KC win + BAL loss + HOU loss or tie

– HOUSTON TEXANS (vs. Jacksonville)
Houston clinches a playoff spot with:
1) HOU win + BAL loss + SD loss

NFC
CLINCHED:
Arizona Cardinals – playoff berth
Seattle Seahawks – playoff berthDetroit Lions – playoff berth
Green Bay Packers – playoff berth
Dallas Cowboys – NFC East

-DALLAS COWBOYS (at Washington)
Dallas clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1) DAL win + ARI loss or tie + DET/GB tie
Dallas clinches a first-round bye with:
1) DAL win + SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie OR
2) DAL win + DET/GB tie OR
3) DAL tie + SEA loss + ARI loss OR
4) DAL tie + SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + DET/GB does not end in a tie

-DETROIT LIONS (at Green Bay)
Detroit clinches NFC North with:
1) DET win or tie
Detroit clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1) DET win + SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie OR
2) DET tie + SEA loss + ARI loss + DAL loss or tie
Detroit clinches a first-round bye with:
1) DET win OR
2) DET tie + DAL loss or tie OR
3) DET tie + SEA loss + ARI loss

-GREEN BAY PACKERS (vs. Detroit)
Green Bay clinches NFC North and a first-round bye with:
1) GB win
Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1) GB win + SEA loss or tie

-SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (vs. St. Louis)
Seattle clinches NFC West with:
1) SEA win OR
2) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie OR
3) ARI loss
Seattle clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1) SEA win + DET/GB game does not end in a tie OR
2) SEA win + DAL loss or tie OR
3) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + DAL loss or tie + GB/DET tie
Seattle clinches a first-round bye with:
1) SEA win OR
2) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + DAL loss OR
3) SEA tie + ARI loss or tie + GB/DET tie

-ARIZONA CARDINALS (at San Francisco)
Arizona clinches NFC West with:
1) ARI win + SEA loss or tie OR
2) ARI tie + SEA loss
Arizona clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1) ARI win + SEA loss or tie + GB loss or tie OR
2) ARI tie + SEA loss + DAL loss or tie + GB/DET tie
Arizona clinches a first-round bye with:
1) ARI win + SEA loss or tie OR
2) ARI tie + SEA loss + DAL loss or tie OR
3) ARI tie + SEA loss + GB/DET tie

-CAROLINA PANTHERS (at Atlanta)
Carolina clinches NFC South with:
1) CAR win or tie

-ATLANTA FALCONS (vs. Carolina)
Atlanta clinches NFC South with:
1) ATL win

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